Time for a reality check regarding the Indianapolis Colts’ 2009 NFL Draft class:
The Colts, one of the NFL’s best drafting teams in recent seasons, selected eight players during the April 25-26, NFL Draft. Those eight — plus 10-to-12 collegiate free agents — will begin their Colts career today when they begin a three-day rookie mini-camp at the Colts’ West 56th Street training complex. Wide-eyed, they will get acclimated withthe playbook, the team’s routine, and late in the day, when they meet with local media, they will speak eagerly of contributing to the team.
And here’s the thing about this year’s Colts draft class:
Those eight players?
There almost certainly will be as many failures as successes.
If the Colts are really, really fortunate, three will become starters. One of the eight might make a Pro Bowl or two. If the Colts are lucky. And out of the whole bunch, one may play enough to prove himself worthy of becoming a core player to the organization to be a long-term guy, to receive the coveted second contract.
This is not to say the Colts drafted poorly. Far from it. It’s also not to say they drafted well, although history says the latter is more likely true than the former.
It’s mainly to make a point that occured to me when I was reading the comments of fans not only on Indy Football Report this week, but on several other websites picking apart — and being incredibly critical — of some players in the Colts’ draft. I’m fine with the criticism, although I’ve never been comfortable criticizing a draft class before any of its members have been on an NFL field, but what I wanted to do with this post is offer a bit of perspective. People nitpick and analyze each selection each of each team each season, and although I admit I’m planning to break down each selection more thoroughly beginning next week after this weekend’s minicamp, I want to try to do so bearing in mind that there is no way all eight of these players will make a serious contribution. And that’s OK. The Colts don’t plan for them, too. They know one, two, three, four or five will fail and six or seven won’t be around in six years, and here’s the thing:
Even if all of that’s true, it can be a successful draft.
I’ve provided below the first 11 drafts of the tenure of Colts President Bill Polian. In those 11 drafts, the Colts have selected 32 players who have moved into what I think of as starting roles. Only eight have gotten the coveted second contract, and although players selected since 2006 have yet to have a chance at such a contract, there are probably only one or two from that group who will be elevated to second contract status.
That’s an average of less than three starters per draft, and fewer than one per draft getting the second contract from one of the best drafting teams in the NFL, and one that has made seven consecutive playoff appearances, nine in the last 10 years.
That’s not slamming the Colts’ drafts. It’s just illustrating what Polian says before every draft — that if you bat somewhere between .500 and .600 on draft day you’re probably going to the playoff every season. For every Robert Mathis, there’s a Sweet Pea Burns; for every Antoine Bethea, a James Lewis.
So, while the draft is obviously important, I’d caution against stressing over every selection. Donald Brown’s a pretty safe bet to contribute, as is Pat McAfee, because drafted punters usually do. If the Colts get nothing else, it’s as productive as some Colts drafts, and who knows who else contributes.
Just remember. They won’t all contribute, and just because they won’t, it won’t mean an unsuccessful draft.
A glance at the contributions of past Colts selections in the NFL Draft . . .
Rd Sel # Player Position School
2008
2 59 Mike Pollak G Arizona State
3 93 Philip Wheeler OLB Georgia Tech
4 127 Jacob Tamme TE Kentucky
5 161 Marcus Howard DE Georgia
6 196 Tom Santi TE Virginia
6 201 Steve Justice C Wake Forest
6 202 Mike Hart RB Michigan
6 205 Pierre Garcon WR Mount Union
7 236 Jamey Richard C Buffalo
Starters: One (Pollak)
Second contract: TBD.
Pro Bowls: None.
2007
1 32 Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State
2 42 Tony Ugoh T Arkansas
3 95 Dante Hughes CB California
3 98 Quinn Pitcock DT Ohio State
4 131 Brannon Condren DB Troy
4 136 Clint Session LB Pittsburgh
5 169 Roy Hall WR Ohio State
5 173 Michael Coe CB Alabama State
7 242 Keyunta Dawson DT Texas Tech
Starters: Four (Gonzalez, Ugoh, Dawson, Session).
Second contract: TBD.
Pro Bowls: None.
2006
1 30 Joseph Addai RB Louisiana State
2 62 Tim Jennings CB Georgia
3 94 Freddie Keiaho LB San Diego State
5 162 Michael Toudouze G Texas Christian
6 199 Charlie Johnson T Oklahoma State
6 207 Antoine Bethea SS Howard
7 238 T.J. Rushing CB Stanford
Starters: Three (Addai, Bethea, Keiaho).
Second contract: TBD.
Pro Bowls:Two (Addai, 1; Bethea, 1).
2005
1 29 Marlin Jackson DB Michigan
2 60 Kelvin Hayden DB Illinois
3 92 Vincent Burns DE Kentucky
4 129 Dylan Gandy G Texas Tech
4 135 Matt Giordano DB California
5 148 Jonathan Welsh DE Wisconsin
5 165 Robert Hunt C North Dakota State
5 173 Tyjuan Hagler LB Cincinnati
6 202 Dave Rayner K Michigan State
7 243 Anthony Davis — Wisconsin
Starters: Two (Jackson, Hayden).
Second contract: Hayden.
Pro Bowls: None.
2004
2 44 Bob Sanders DB Iowa
3 68 Ben Hartsock TE Ohio State
3 69 Gilbert Gardner LB Purdue
4 107 Kendyll Pope LB Florida State
4 125 Jason David CB Washington State
5 141 Jake Scott G Idaho
6 173 Von Hutchins DB Mississippi
6 193 Jim Sorgi QB Wisconsin
7 229 David Kimball K Penn State
Starters: Two (Sanders, Scott).
Second contract: Sanders.
Pro Bowls: Two (Sanders, 2).
2003
1 24 Dallas Clark TE Iowa
2 58 Mike Doss SS Ohio State
3 90 Donald Strickland FS Colorado
4 122 Steve Sciullo G Marshall
5 138 Robert Mathis DE Alabama A&M
5 162 Keyon Whiteside LB Tennessee
6 198 Cato June DB Michigan
6 208 Makoa Freitas T Arizona
Starters: Three (Clark, Mathis, June).
Second contract: Two (Clark, Mathis).
Pro Bowls: Two (Mathis, 1; June, 1).
2002
1 11 Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse
2 42 Larry Tripplett DT Washington
3 74 Joseph Jefferson CB Western Kentucky
4 106 David Thornton LB North Carolina
6 182 David Pugh DT Virginia Tech
6 183 James Lewis S Miami (Fla.)
6 204 Brian Allen RB Stanford
7 220 Josh Mallard DE Georgia
Starters: Three (Freeney, Tripplett, Thornton).
Second contract: Freeney.
Pro Bowls:Four (Freeney, four).
2001
1 30 Reggie Wayne WR Miami (Fla.)
2 37 Idrees Bashir FS Memphis
3 91 Cory Bird DB Virginia Tech
4 118 Ryan Diem G Northern Illinois
5 152 Raymond Walls DB Southern Mississippi
6 193 Jason Doering DB Wisconsin
7 220 Rick DeMulling G Idaho
Starters: Four (Wayne, Bashir, Diem, DeMulling).
Second contract: Wayne, Diem.
Pro Bowls: Three (Wayne, 3).
2000
1 28 Rob Morris LB Brigham Young
2 59 Marcus Washington LB Auburn
3 91 David Macklin DB Penn State
4 122 Josh Williams DT Michigan
5 138 Matt Johnson — Brigham Young
7 235 Rob Renes DT Michigan
7 238 Rodregis Brooks DB Alabama-Birmingham
Starters:Four (Morris, Washington, Macklin, Williams).
Second contract: None.
Pro Bowls: One (Washington, 1, with Washington Redskins).
1999
1 4 Edgerrin James RB Miami (Fla.)
2 36 Mike Peterson OLB Florida
3 63 Brandon Burlsworth — Arkansas
4 96 Paul Miranda DB Central Florida
5 138 Brad Scioli DE Penn State
7 210 Hunter Smith P Notre Dame
7 250 Corey Terry DE Tennessee
Starters:Three (James, Peterson, Scioli)
Second contract: Smith, with James getting franchise tag for one season.
Pro Bowls: Four (James, 9).
1998
1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee
2 32 Jerome Pathon WR Washington
3 71 E.G. Green WR Florida State
4 93 Steve McKinney G Texas A&M
5 135 Antony Jordan LB Vanderbilt
7 190 Aaron Taylor G Nebraska
7 231 Cory Gaines — Tennessee
Starters:Three (Manning, Pathon, McKinney).
Second contract: Manning.
Pro Bowls: Nine (Manning, 9).
