Editor’s note: At the request of a reader, this has been reposted to allow further discussion in the comment thread. I have been amazed at the passion people feel on both sides of the issue — so much that I have toyed with the idea of simply filing a post with two words, “Joseph Addai,” and seeing what sort of reaction it would bring. I’m confident it would spawn much debate. Anyway, good stuff, so back by “popular” demand is this thread . . .
There may be no more discussed player on the Indianapolis Colts this offseason than running back Joseph Addai.
Addai, a Pro Bowl selection following the 2007 season, rushed for more than 1,000 yards each of his first two NFL seasons, but this past season, he rushed for just 544 yards and five touchdowns on 155 carries, a 3.5 yards per carry average — that, after he rushed for 4.8 yards per carry as a rookie and 4.1 yard per carry in 2007.
So, what happened?
That question has been asked often this offseason, with theories ranging from various injuries sustained by Addai to a rash of injuries on the offensive line throughout the season to Addai just plain not being the back he was as a rookie. But make no mistake:
Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell believes in Addai, and believes he’s going to have a big season. Caldwell said recently:
I think you’ll see him come along and develop. He’s going through a process right now of getting things back to where he feels good and comfortable. He had a few things clinged up here and there, but overall, you’re going to see: Joe’s going to have a fine year.
One telling statistic about Addai: his 3.5 yards per carry average was identically to that of backup running back Dominic Rhodes, who rushed for 538 yards and six touchdowns on 152 carries: an average of 3.5 yards per carry.
Right tackle Ryan Diem: I put no blame on the running backs whatsoever, because if they don’t have anywhere to go, it’s not their fault. It’s something we definitely need to fine-tune and get working a lot better, because it just opens up the rest of the offense.
IFR Analysis: I’m not sure there’s a more important statistic regarding Addai than the comparision of his yards per carry average to that of Rhodes. Many fans believe Addai was subpar last season, but he and Rhodes were basically as effective as one another, and I tend to agree with Diem, that if the backs don’t have anywhere to go, it’s not their fault. Addai wasn’t 100 percent last season and the line wasn’t, either. Basically, the whole running game was a mess most of the season and there’s no one around the Colts who doesn’t believe it needs to be fixed. With rookie Donald Brown on the roster, and with a healthy line, the guess here is that Addai returns to the form he showed in his first season and a half — and that together, Brown and Addai have one of the better combined seasons by Colts running backs in recent memory.
Regarding comparing Addai to Rhodes – shouldn’t Addai be held to a much higher standard than an old 3rd string RB with lots of years on his tred?
The backs did have holes to hit – Addai in particular simply wasn’t able to hit them. What’s more, while there is no doubt that the O-line shares in the blame, the RB has the lion’s portion. MJD is a good example. He had an even worse O-line yet still found ways to produce. That is what a RB is supposed to do.
Finally, didn’t the Colts also tell us last year that Marvin Harrison was “just fine” and would have a “fine” year? They told us that he was right back to where he was. How did that work out for us?
I don’t believe a single thing they say anymore. Instead, I’ll look at their actions, not their words. And their actions have been clear – they spent their first round pick on a new RB. Anyone who thinks that isn’t a message isn’t thinking clear.
There were no holes to hit. Maybe you should ask yourself why, if the problem was Addai, the Colts were 9th in the league running left and 31st running right. That sounds like there was a massive problem on the right side of the line. In fact, anyone watching the games could tell you that.
BTW: Dom Rhodes was not a ‘third stringer’. He also didn’t face the same competition as Addai. Addai had two terrible games. His worst game against the Vikings without 3 members of the line, or Clark playing. His other bad game came against New England when he clearly wasn’t healthy yet. In his other 10 games, he averaged four yards a carry.
By comparison, if you take out Dom’s two worst games (against Baltimore which is understandable and Jacksonville), his YPC climbs to only 3.8.
MJD saw his YPC drop for the third straight year. He was also healthy all season.
The running game will be “fine” this year. I accept the fact that Addai is above average but certainly not a top-10 back. After his rookie year, I thought he was headed toward being a top-10 back. He just doesn’t appear to have the durability that you like to see in young backs. The team recognized this (draft Brown) and if they both stay healthy then this is going to be a helluva one-two punch.
“His worst game against the Vikings without 3 members of the line, or Clark playing. His other bad game came against New England when he clearly wasn’t healthy yet. In his other 10 games, he averaged four yards a carry.”
This is how far Addai-fever goes in some. It extends into revisionist history. Addai had far less then 4 yards per carry on most of his games, including the two previously mentioned as well as Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleavland, Cincinnati, and San Diego in the playoffs.
Sorry, I don’t buy the “Addai is blameless” routine – and it would appear that Polian didn’t either this year.
And the anti-Addai crowd ignores things like he was better than Dom when the both played together in the same game. They ignore the fact that his production drops overlap perfectly with the decline of the O-line in 2007. They ignore the fact that a two back system is the best way to go in today’s NFL, and the Colts were smart to draft a RB, and that even staunch Addai supporters (like myself) predicted they would draft a running back because they needed two.
They also treat Addai like he’s some kind of wuss because he had some injuries. That’s the same kind of thinking that caused people to hate on Marshal Faulk in his second two seasons in Indianapolis. Hating on a player who is hurt is not smart. When the get healthy, they tend to make you look bad.
“And the anti-Addai crowd ignores things like he was better than Dom when the both played together in the same game.”
He darn well should have been. Dom is now a third-string RB and is how many years older with how much more milage on his tred?
“his production drops overlap perfectly with the decline of the O-line in 2007″
The O-line was just fine in the playoff game that year. Addai wasn’t. And that the Colts would draft another RB in the 2009 draft was a given – hardly a prediction. That they would draft one IN THE FIRST ROUND is a message to Joseph Addai.
I predicted that Addai would have a terrible year in 2008 and I was roundly called a fool for doing it. I was right then and I’m right now. Addai was never that special in the first place and he has lost whatever “mojo” he had his rookie year.
Here’s a prediction for you: Brown will replace Hart as the #1 RB by mid-season (probably sooner) and Addai will find himself fighting to hold on to the #2 spot.
Funny how no one else has yet to buy into your philosophy regarding Addai. I don’t know what holding Addai to a higher standard means in that situation. It was a comparison. At any rate, Rhodes hardly is a third string back with lots a mileage on his tread. He was a 2nd string back virtually his entire career and started one season. Rhodes has 777 carries for his career while Addai has roughly 130 less in 3 seasons.
In regard to the Colts taking a back being a “sign”…was the Cowboys taking a back in the first round a sign that they weren’t pleased with Barber’s production? Hardly. It’s an indication that having two quality backs is becoming standard procedure in the NFL. The Raiders and Panthers also picked backs in the first round last while having quality backs on their roster already.
“The backs did have holes to hit – Addai in particular simply wasn’t able to hit them. What’s more, while there is no doubt that the O-line shares in the blame, the RB has the lion’s portion. MJD is a good example. He had an even worse O-line yet still found ways to produce. That is what a RB is supposed to do.”
This is a hysterical example of your writing style. You make vague references to things that can’t be backed up with factual information (i.e., the backs did have holes to it). Why is it that nobody else believes this if its true? Addai wasn’t able to hit them. What does that mean? He couldn’t run into a hole? If a play is called for a certain spot along the line of scrimmage then the first place he is looking to run is…in that spot. It doesn’t take skill to look directly ahead and see a hole that is there because a play is being ran in that direction. Addai lost his “mojo”. haha… wow. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?!?!?!?!
“The O-line was just fine in the playoff game that year. Addai wasn’t.”
Really? Interesting. Didn’t Federkeil start that game? The 6′6” 290lb Canadian Leaguer.
OK, lets go with the theory that Addai lost his mojo last year. Whatever that means. Reinforcing your position is his performance against SD last year in the playoffs. Paraphrasing your words, the line was healthy, although it wasn’t, but Addai still failed to perform. So when has Addai put up good numbers against SD pre or post mojo loss?
In 3 previous meetings Addai’s best game against SD came earlier last year when Addai had 70 yards on 16 carries. Pretty good and post mojo loss at that! However, one of those carries was for 23 yards. If you subtract that, Addai ran for 47 yards on 15 carries for an avg of 3.1 ypc. Rough. But In his other three games against SD he had 3.3, 2.8, and 2.5 respectively. Therefore his performance in the playoffs seems pretty typical. SD has a good run D.
Referring to MJD STILL does not help your case. As I’ve pointed out in the past, and you have failed to understand, the Jaguars drop in running production is directly correlated with Fred Taylor’s decline in performance. Although the Jags struggled to block for the pass they still were able to run block.
Addai had 6 games last season where his final ypc was very low. Those games were Min, Balt, Cin, NE, Pitt, & the playoff game against SD. So lets run through these and point out the obvious. Min, Balt, Pitt, and Chicago are the top 5 teams at defending the run. Hardly a surprise that one of the worst running teams in the NFL had a hard time running against these defenses. I’ve already talked about SD.
The Cleveland game does not equal a bad performance by Addai. For starters, the game was played in like 23 mph wind. Clearly the defense is looking for the run first. Regardless though, Addai had a 3.8 ypc on 15 carries. A decent avg. especially in those conditions.
If Hart makes the team, he will still never be the number 1 back on the Colts roster at any point in the season.
Furthermore… If MJD was able to perform in spite of his line…why was he only able to do so against the worst run D’s? His only games with 90 yards or better came against DEN and Indy…the 2 worst run D’s in the NFL.
Here is a list of the games that both MJD and Addai played in and how they performed.
MJD J.A.
MN 3-4 15-20
HOU 7-32 17-71
HOU 12-49 22-105
PIT 5-7 12-34
CLE 12-29 15-57
CIN 10-33 10-26
BALT 23-78 2-3
AT YAR AVG
MJD 72 232 3.2
JA 93 316 3.3
Well…the formatting changed upon submission. Hopefully you can make sense of that.
And MJD has 9 fumbles to Addai’s 3 for their careers. MJD had 6 last year.
I agree, I do not think Addai is a superstar, but he is a game changer, he has that ability. I liked him @ LSU, just because he could do alot of things well. His versatility makes him unique and a commodity, and to ignore that is foolish. When healthy, as with any other athlete, he can make things happen. PERIOD, no discussion on that. He must be healthy or he will not have a good season. If the line improves and Addai does the same, then we will see a totally new offense. And despite what some think, one man does not make an offense. Without good line play, you get no where. PERIOD, no discussion.
“Funny how no one else has yet to buy into your philosophy regarding Addai.”
What planet are you living on? There are HOARDS of fans out there who are sick and tired of seeing the dancing back in action. It would seem as if Polian is getting tired of it too – drafting his replacement in the first round.
And you don’t know what “mojo” is? Really? Finally – no one ever claimed Hart was going to start. Where did that come from?
“Without good line play, you get no where. PERIOD, no discussion.”
Bullcrap. You won’t do as well, there is no question about it, but a good RB can still make yards. MJD did it with a line that was even worse.
No, MJD did it with a schedule that was even worse.
He pretty much crushed your MJD argument with the head to head comparison.
BTW: MJD averaged under 4 YPC against the rest of the NFL. He averaged over 5 YPC against the Colts.
If Joe could have run against the Colts front four, maybe he would have had a better season too.
“no one ever claimed Hart was going to start. Where did that come from?”
hahaha… This is just too easy.
“Here’s a prediction for you: Brown will replace Hart as the #1 RB by mid-season (probably sooner) and Addai will find himself fighting to hold on to the #2 spot.” ~ the_iowa_hawkeye
He didn’t destroy anything. MJD was used as much as a receiver AS WELL as a rusher. Not only did MJD put up 824 yards for a 4.2 ypc average but he also put up 565 yards recieving for a combined total of 14 TDs and 1,389 yards. Addai, on the other hand, racked up 544 yards for a 3.5 ypc average and 206 yards recieving for a combined total of 7 TDs and 750 yards. Half the total TDs and just over half the yards. Sorry, but there isn’t even a comparison.
Sorry to all the Addai fans out there, but the rest of us are sick and tired of seeing him do nothing on the field. This year is Addai’s FINAL chance. Personally, I don’t expect him to make it past the first four games as starter. His replacement was drafted in the first round and neither Polian nor Caldwell are going to let someone like Brown just sit on the bench while Addai is out there dancing around.
Must be nice to play for a team where your the only viable option on offense which helps to inflate your TD numbers.
Simply looking at MJD’s statistical totals from last year is really quite irrelevant. For one thing, if you actually read my other posts which I have a hard time believing considering you attempt to make points that I already invalidated, I point out that MJD’s rushing stats are skewed by big performances against poor defenses. More specifically, they’re skewed by games against the absolute WORST rushing defenses in the league last year. Not poor, WORST. See, I can capitalize my words too to add effect.
Here are some interesting facts. People like to point to MJD’s having to split carries as being the reason why his rushing totals have really been quite modest. However, the data shows that MJD is not shown his is capable of carrying a heavy load in the NFL. For example, last season MJD had a total of 60 carries that were the 11th carry or greater of that game. Interestingly, on carries 1-10 MJD had a total of 137 attempts for 621 yards with a 4.5 average. On attempts 11-20 his average drops an entire yard (i.e., 55 att., 193 yrds, 3.5 ypc). MJD only had a total of 5 carries that fell into the category of 21st or greater during a game. His YPC dropped again, this time to 2 ypc. Ouch. Not quite the workhorse back I’m looking to carry the load for my team.
Addai on the other hand had a quite different statistical pattern. Let me reiterate a couple things. Addai played in essentially 10 regular season games to MJD’s 16. Addai played in all 4 of the games that were played against top 5 run defenses. Indeed, the only game he missed where the Colts played against a good run D was the first game against TN. With this in mind, Addai seemed to get stronger as the game wore on. Quite the opposite when considering MJD’s statistical pattern. Addai had 113 attempts that fell in the 1-10th carry of that particular game. His YPC was 3.1 for these attempts. Addai too had about 60 carries that were the 11th or greater of any given game. In contrast to MJD’s performance though, Addai seemed to perform better. Indeed, Addai had 56 carries that fell between 11-20 of any given game and had a 4.2 average for those carries. In addition he had 2 carries that were greater than the 20th of that game for 8 yards.
Again, another statistic that is thrown around is MJD’s TD total. This is something that is very impressive in the fantasy football realm. However, this statistic is overemphasized when considering ones value for a team. Last season MJD was clearly Jacksonville’s most potent offensive weapon. Couple that with a very average quarterback and inadequate receiving corps and clearly your going to run it the vast majority of the times in the red zone. These two facts lent itself well to MJD’s TD total becoming inflated.
But how important is his TD total? Although MJD clearly has a tendency to break long runs for touchdowns, this was certainly not what contributed to the majority of his touchdowns. In fact, only 1 of his rushing TDs from last season fall into the long gain category. Of his 12 rushing TDs 10 of them were in the first 10 carries, 11 of them were within the 19 yard line, and his longest run within the opponents 19 yard line was 8 yards. In fact when MJD was within an opponents 20, he wasn’t very effective at all when asked to run. His totals were as follows: 31 attempts, 89 yards, 2.9 ypc, but 11 tds. How talented do you have to be to score a touchdown within 3 yards of the endzone?
Clearly Addai had several things working against him last year when considering his TD production. He essentially played in only 10 games. Four of those games came against top 5 run D’s. More importantly though, the Colts are much more likely to score touchdowns from further away from the endzone and are more effective when passing inside the 9. The Jags made 22 attempts within the opponents 9 and came away with 6 TDs. The Colts on the other hand had 26 attempts but came away with 13 touchdowns. Clearly this fact is taking away from any and all RB’s TD total.
I don’t really get the argument for MJD being a great receiver. Before we get into that though, lets just all agree that Addai is clearly a superior pass blocker. Moving on. What is so impressive about MJD’s receiving stats? Last year he had a total of 62 receptions for 565 yards and two TD’s. That’s OK. Again, his numbers are often inflated by default. Who else are you going to throw to? But where are these passes coming from? According to espn.com, 37 of his receptions came from behind the line. Hmm… having the majority of your receptions come off screen passes certainly isn’t too impressive. In contrast, Addai had 7 receptions from behind the line. Indeed, in 2007 only 18 came from behind the line and 15 in 2006.
I’m spent. It’s not like your actually going to read all of this anyway.
“MJD is not shown his is capable of carrying a heavy load in the NFL.”
Wow. Yeah, that’s it. MJD is a lousy RB and Addai is one of the best. Got it. The loyal Addai fans will be loyal to him even after he’s lost his starting spot to Brown.
By the way:
“hahaha… This is just too easy.
“Here’s a prediction for you: Brown will replace Hart as the #1 RB by mid-season (probably sooner)”
That was a typo. I meant to say:
Here’s a prediction for you: Brown will replace Addai as the #1 RB by mid-season…
Seeing that we were talking about Addai that should have been rather obvious.
Quite the rebuttal. Keep it up.
There is no rebuttal to someone wearing rose-colored glasses.